Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 324 Southwest	DAL 07:31	BOS 12:36	9%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	6h 42m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 18:15 → BOS 21:00DL 821	7h 41m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → BOS 19:30DL 518	8h 23m	99%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:26 → MDW 17:48WN 1414	58m Chicago	MDW 18:46 → BOS 22:12WN 1266	5h 46m	74%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON