Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1338 at 15:21, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1338 Southwest	DAL 15:21	CLT 18:56	27%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 26m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158	7h 12m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → CLT 20:11DL 2132	6h 52m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 20:40 → CLT 21:57DL 3139	4h 58m	90%	79%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:26 → MDW 17:48WN 1414	1h 08m Chicago	MDW 18:56 → CLT 21:48WN 4904	5h 22m	75%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON