Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4746 at 10:56, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4746 Southwest	DAL 10:56	CMH 14:29	9%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750	6h 33m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 14:21 → CMH 16:03DL 2892	4h 56m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786	5h 44m	96%	84%
Southwest Details →	DAL 14:31 → HOU 15:52WN 33	1h 59m Houston	HOU 17:51 → CMH 21:34WN 2025	6h 03m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 20:33 → CMH 22:15DL 1501	5h 16m	88%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:26 → MDW 17:48WN 1414	53m Chicago	MDW 18:41 → CMH 21:02WN 4609	4h 36m	64%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON