Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1348 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 1348 DAL 05:54 → DEN 07:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1352 DAL 17:06 → DEN 18:10 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1348 Southwest	DAL 05:54	DEN 07:00	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1349 Southwest	DAL 07:01	DEN 08:07	9%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 295 Southwest	DAL 11:51	DEN 12:52	16%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1350 Southwest	DAL 09:16	DEN 10:18	16%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1767 Southwest	DAL 14:16	DEN 15:20	22%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1351 Southwest	DAL 15:36	DEN 16:37	31%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1353 Southwest	DAL 18:51	DEN 19:55	36%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1352 Southwest	DAL 17:06	DEN 18:10	37%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON