Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 311 at 08:19, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 311 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:19	ECP 10:21	7%	1%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	4h 43m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	6h 05m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053	5h 36m	97%	86%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:59 → HOU 11:19WN 15	2h 27m Houston	HOU 13:46 → ECP 15:43WN 1861	5h 44m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON