Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1 at 06:53 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1 DAL 06:53 → HOU 08:13 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 49 DAL 18:24 → HOU 19:45 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:53	HOU 08:13	2%	1%	0.9%	92%
WN 1628 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	HOU 07:10	3%	1%	0.9%	93%
WN 5 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:01	HOU 09:21	4%	2%	0.9%	85%
WN 15 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:59	HOU 11:19	4%	2%	0.9%	90%
WN 19 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:30	HOU 12:45	8%	2%	0.9%	80%
WN 33 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 14:31	HOU 15:52	12%	4%	0.8%	71%
WN 43 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:03	HOU 18:24	15%	4%	0.9%	73%
WN 39 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:03	HOU 17:24	16%	4%	0.9%	69%
WN 49 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:24	HOU 19:45	19%	5%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON