Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4673 at 10:21, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4673 Southwest	DAL 10:21	IND 13:35	10%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:53 → HOU 08:13WN 1	2h 43m Houston	HOU 10:56 → IND 14:21WN 572	6h 28m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	5h 31m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 17:27 → IND 19:07DL 3120	5h 48m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482	5h 28m	92%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON