Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2214 at 07:46, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2214 Southwest	DAL 07:46	JAX 11:15	5%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024	6h 40m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → JAX 16:27DL 2720	5h 20m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:51 → JAX 19:13DL 2189	5h 54m	97%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON