Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1365 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1365 DAL 06:31 → LAS 07:23 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 989 DAL 18:31 → LAS 19:20 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1365 Southwest	DAL 06:31	LAS 07:23	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 1368 Southwest	DAL 07:36	LAS 08:26	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 1665 Southwest	DAL 09:16	LAS 10:06	10%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 1370 Southwest	DAL 10:49	LAS 11:39	13%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1375 Southwest	DAL 11:48	LAS 12:39	17%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1369 Southwest	DAL 14:00	LAS 14:49	20%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 989 Southwest	DAL 18:31	LAS 19:20	26%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON