Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 268 Southwest	DAL 09:26	LAX 10:54	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4828 Southwest	DAL 13:28	LAX 14:39	19%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	10h 07m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:53 → HOU 08:13WN 1	3h 33m Houston	HOU 11:46 → LAX 13:20WN 175	8h 27m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 15:40 → LAX 17:26DL 301	9h 19m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 18:48 → LAX 20:16DL 996	9h 57m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	DAL 14:31 → HOU 15:52WN 33	2h 34m Houston	HOU 18:26 → LAX 20:00WN 988	7h 29m	99%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON