Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4827 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 4827 DAL 06:21 → LGA 11:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 40 DAL 17:51 → LGA 22:32 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4827 Southwest	DAL 06:21	LGA 11:01	8%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 1279 Southwest	DAL 08:26	LGA 12:59	13%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 2777 Southwest	DAL 12:36	LGA 17:08	30%	10%	1.1%	no record
WN 4749 Southwest	DAL 15:56	LGA 20:36	36%	15%	1.1%	no record
WN 40 Southwest	DAL 17:51	LGA 22:32	36%	15%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON