Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1388 Southwest	DAL 09:26	LIT 10:48	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2885 Southwest	DAL 15:56	LIT 17:17	16%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:31 → LIT 11:03DL 3040	4h 58m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027	5h 05m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → LIT 18:31DL 2061	6h 12m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → LIT 21:34DL 2701	5h 35m	92%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON