Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1404 at 06:17 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1404 DAL 06:17 → MCO 09:56 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1336 DAL 17:53 → MCO 21:34 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1404 Southwest	DAL 06:17	MCO 09:56	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2366 Southwest	DAL 07:37	MCO 11:16	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1497 Southwest	DAL 08:37	MCO 12:19	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1407 Southwest	DAL 13:26	MCO 17:06	19%	5%	4.2%	no record
WN 4247 Southwest	DAL 14:31	MCO 18:10	21%	6%	2.8%	no record
WN 4557 Southwest	DAL 16:22	MCO 20:02	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 1336 Southwest	DAL 17:53	MCO 21:34	30%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON