Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1411 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1411 DAL 06:02 → MDW 08:24 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1414 DAL 15:26 → MDW 17:48 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1411 Southwest	DAL 06:02	MDW 08:24	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 8 Southwest	DAL 09:41	MDW 12:07	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 16 Southwest	DAL 12:02	MDW 14:24	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4522 Southwest	DAL 14:02	MDW 16:24	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1415 Southwest	DAL 19:16	MDW 21:41	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1414 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:26	MDW 17:48	25%	5%	0.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON