Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1417 at 12:26, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1417 Southwest	DAL 12:26	MEM 14:03	15%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10WN 1628	3h 16m Houston	HOU 10:26 → MEM 12:09WN 3054	6h 09m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 27m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:07DL 1681	7h 00m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:59 → HOU 11:19WN 15	3h 42m Houston	HOU 15:01 → MEM 16:44WN 820	6h 45m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → MEM 18:16DL 2939	5h 57m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	57m Atlanta	ATL 20:11 → MEM 20:34DL 3020	4h 35m	83%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON