Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2929 at 13:56, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2929 Southwest	DAL 13:56	MIA 17:46	26%	8%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 57m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	6h 40m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	5h 48m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	54m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → MIA 18:23DL 719	5h 04m	83%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON