Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 440 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 440 DAL 06:02 → MSY 07:39 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1321 DAL 19:29 → MSY 21:07 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 440 Southwest	DAL 06:02	MSY 07:39	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1420 Southwest	DAL 07:32	MSY 09:10	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4831 Southwest	DAL 11:01	MSY 12:39	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2563 Southwest	DAL 15:16	MSY 16:53	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1423 Southwest	DAL 16:36	MSY 18:14	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1321 Southwest	DAL 19:29	MSY 21:07	19%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON