Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4832 at 07:51, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4832 Southwest	DAL 07:51	PHL 12:11	7%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:32 → PHL 13:43DL 8885	6h 38m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	8h 01m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	7h 05m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:33DL 1174	5h 34m	86%	74%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:26 → MDW 17:48WN 1414	1h 08m Chicago	MDW 18:56 → PHL 22:08WN 4757	5h 42m	75%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON