Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1433 at 06:22 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1433 DAL 06:22 → PHX 07:06 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1305 DAL 19:05 → PHX 19:49 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1433 Southwest	DAL 06:22	PHX 07:06	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 873 Southwest	DAL 09:32	PHX 10:14	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1434 Southwest	DAL 08:27	PHX 09:10	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1435 Southwest	DAL 11:23	PHX 12:07	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1436 Southwest	DAL 14:13	PHX 14:58	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1437 Southwest	DAL 17:36	PHX 18:21	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1305 Southwest	DAL 19:05	PHX 19:49	25%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON