Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 555 at 15:41, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 555 Southwest	DAL 15:41	PIT 19:30	23%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	5h 47m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568	6h 01m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 21:14 → PIT 23:00DL 2583	6h 01m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 16:57 → PIT 18:47DL 3122	5h 28m	94%	80%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:59 → HOU 11:19WN 15	3h 37m Houston	HOU 14:56 → PIT 18:57WN 2147	7h 58m	99%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON