Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1752 at 12:26, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1752 Southwest	DAL 12:26	RDU 16:21	19%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488	5h 37m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550	5h 13m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → RDU 20:57DL 1518	7h 38m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:59 → HOU 11:19WN 15	3h 47m Houston	HOU 15:06 → RDU 19:08WN 4602	8h 09m	99%	78%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:26 → MDW 17:48WN 1414	1h 03m Chicago	MDW 18:51 → RDU 21:52WN 4648	5h 26m	75%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON