tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1460 at 11:56, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1460 Southwest DAL 11:56 SDF 15:10 12% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481 4h 46m 97% 88%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 08:01 → HOU 09:21WN 5 3h 55m Houston HOU 13:16 → SDF 16:43WN 19 7h 42m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126 6h 42m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → SDF 19:22DL 2831 6h 03m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512 1h 24m Atlanta ATL 20:38 → SDF 22:04DL 2842 5h 05m 89% 78%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 15:26 → MDW 17:48WN 1414 1h 08m Chicago MDW 18:56 → SDF 21:17WN 4731 4h 51m 75% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON