Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4840 at 07:31, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4840 Southwest	DAL 07:31	SEA 09:43	16%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 45m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	10h 58m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SEA 20:11DL 714	9h 52m	97%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON