Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 8964 at 00:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 8964 DAL 00:05 → SFO 01:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 8958 DAL 14:02 → SFO 15:40 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 8964 Delta	DAL 00:05	SFO 01:35	10%	4%	1.2%	no record
WN 1462 Southwest	DAL 07:29	SFO 09:10	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 8958 Delta	DAL 14:02	SFO 15:40	22%	8%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON