Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 44 at 18:46, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 44 Southwest	DAL 18:46	SJC 20:34	26%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10WN 1628	56m Houston	HOU 08:06 → SJC 10:10WN 2125	6h 10m	96%	90%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136	10h 45m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933	8h 50m	92%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON