Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1426 at 10:11, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1426 Southwest	DAL 10:11	SLC 11:52	10%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 45m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:01 → HOU 09:21WN 5	3h 30m Houston	HOU 12:51 → SLC 14:55WN 2126	7h 54m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 11m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	8h 43m	97%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON