Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1476 at 09:16 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1476 Southwest	DAL 09:16	TUL 10:36	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4248 Southwest	DAL 16:26	TUL 17:46	18%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620	5h 51m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:59 → HOU 11:19WN 15	2h 47m Houston	HOU 14:06 → TUL 15:44WN 2643	5h 45m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186	5h 46m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	5h 45m	94%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON