Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1481 at 09:56, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1481 Southwest	DAL 09:56	VPS 11:57	7%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	58m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	4h 24m	95%	88%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	6h 23m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 15:44 → VPS 16:01DL 2170	5h 54m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:30 → HOU 12:45WN 19	2h 56m Houston	HOU 15:41 → VPS 17:30WN 1155	6h 00m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882	4h 50m	89%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON