Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 26 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1411 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 1411 DAL 06:02 → MDW 08:24 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2257 DFW 17:34 → ORD 19:59 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1411 Southwest	DAL 06:02	MDW 08:24	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 8 Southwest	DAL 09:41	MDW 12:07	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 1938 American Flight history →	DFW 04:54	ORD 07:28	8%	3%	1.3%	90%
AA 2999 American Flight history →	DFW 05:47	ORD 08:13	8%	3%	1.2%	76%
UA 1695 United Flight history →	DFW 07:08	ORD 09:50	10%	4%	0.8%	82%
AA 328 American Flight history →	DFW 08:38	ORD 11:14	14%	5%	1.0%	85%
AA 1858 American	DFW 07:24	ORD 09:50	15%	4%	1.2%	no record
WN 16 Southwest	DAL 12:02	MDW 14:24	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4522 Southwest	DAL 14:02	MDW 16:24	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1634 United Flight history →	DFW 10:42	ORD 13:19	17%	6%	0.7%	83%
F9 2882 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 09:35	MDW 12:06	18%	6%	0.9%	65%
UA 1401 United Flight history →	DFW 12:00	ORD 14:42	18%	8%	0.9%	74%
AA 1251 American	DFW 10:25	ORD 12:59	19%	6%	1.1%	no record
UA 1517 United Flight history →	DFW 19:30	ORD 22:13	20%	8%	0.8%	68%
AA 1285 American Flight history →	DFW 11:26	ORD 14:00	21%	7%	1.2%	72%
WN 1415 Southwest	DAL 19:16	MDW 21:41	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2160 United Flight history →	DFW 14:15	ORD 16:57	24%	9%	0.9%	63%
AA 2988 American Flight history →	DFW 13:10	ORD 15:51	24%	8%	1.4%	66%
WN 1414 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:26	MDW 17:48	25%	5%	0.8%	73%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	DFW 17:47	ORD 20:30	27%	9%	0.8%	60%
UA 2275 United	DFW 18:00	ORD 20:37	28%	9%	0.9%	no record
F9 3242 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:43	ORD 20:27	32%	13%	1.7%	63%
AA 1290 American Flight history →	DFW 16:37	ORD 19:02	33%	11%	1.3%	69%
AA 3264 American	DFW 15:38	ORD 18:12	34%	12%	1.5%	no record
AA 2656 American	DFW 18:22	ORD 20:56	35%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 2257 American	DFW 17:34	ORD 19:59	36%	10%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON