Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 28 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1 at 06:53 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 1 DAL 06:53 → HOU 08:13 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2438 DFW 17:12 → IAH 18:30 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:53	HOU 08:13	2%	1%	0.9%	92%
WN 1628 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	HOU 07:10	3%	1%	0.9%	93%
WN 5 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:01	HOU 09:21	4%	2%	0.9%	85%
WN 15 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:59	HOU 11:19	4%	2%	0.9%	90%
UA 2260 United Flight history →	DFW 05:10	IAH 06:22	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
WN 19 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:30	HOU 12:45	8%	2%	0.9%	80%
AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:52	HOU 09:15	9%	2%	0.9%	88%
AA 3829 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:28	IAH 11:48	10%	2%	0.8%	97%
UA 2670 United Flight history →	DFW 07:00	IAH 08:26	11%	4%	0.6%	72%
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:13	IAH 08:43	11%	3%	0.8%	69%
WN 33 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 14:31	HOU 15:52	12%	4%	0.8%	71%
OO 6186 SkyWest	DFW 12:04	HOU 13:24	12%	7%	0.9%	no record
OO 6382 SkyWest	DFW 09:43	HOU 11:02	13%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 1586 United Flight history →	DFW 09:46	IAH 11:03	13%	4%	0.6%	82%
MQ 4015 Envoy	DFW 14:27	HOU 15:44	15%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 43 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:03	HOU 18:24	15%	4%	0.9%	73%
WN 39 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:03	HOU 17:24	16%	4%	0.9%	69%
AA 1407 American Flight history →	DFW 08:29	IAH 09:47	17%	5%	0.7%	77%
OO 6252 SkyWest	DFW 16:21	HOU 17:41	19%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 49 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:24	HOU 19:45	19%	5%	0.8%	58%
AA 3391 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:31	HOU 19:48	20%	4%	1.2%	68%
UA 1609 United Flight history →	DFW 17:24	IAH 18:46	20%	8%	0.6%	60%
UA 2682 United Flight history →	DFW 16:01	IAH 17:18	21%	7%	0.6%	67%
MQ 3908 Envoy	DFW 18:14	IAH 19:25	22%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1397 American	DFW 11:57	IAH 13:15	22%	7%	0.8%	no record
OH 5576 PSA	DFW 14:05	IAH 15:17	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2438 American Flight history →	DFW 17:12	IAH 18:30	31%	11%	0.8%	60%
UA 3985 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DFW 14:15	IAH 15:37	29%	17%	0.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON