Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 34 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 439 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 439 DFW 07:35 → LAX 08:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2597 DFW 18:54 → BUR 20:26 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 439 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:35	LAX 08:45	8%	2%	0.7%	92%
AA 3303 American	DFW 06:27	LAX 07:54	9%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 1686 American Flight history →	DFW 07:15	SNA 08:39	11%	3%	0.9%	90%
DL 521 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:45	LAX 14:58	12%	3%	0.6%	88%
WN 268 Southwest	DAL 09:26	LAX 10:54	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
F9 2273 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:35	LAX 08:54	12%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 2114 American Flight history →	DFW 08:28	SNA 09:55	13%	3%	0.8%	78%
AA 3317 American Flight history →	DFW 07:13	LAX 08:30	13%	4%	1.0%	85%
AA 1820 American Flight history →	DFW 08:29	ONT 09:52	14%	3%	0.8%	79%
AA 3181 American	DFW 10:43	LAX 12:09	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 1939 American	DFW 09:35	SNA 11:01	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2635 American Flight history →	DFW 12:15	ONT 13:42	15%	5%	0.8%	84%
AA 2465 American Flight history →	DFW 12:21	SNA 13:48	15%	5%	0.8%	84%
F9 4963 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 14:02	LAX 15:39	16%	6%	0.7%	76%
AA 2956 American Flight history →	DFW 10:49	ONT 12:10	16%	5%	0.8%	74%
AA 1933 American	DFW 11:29	SNA 12:56	17%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 442 American Flight history →	DFW 11:38	LAX 13:05	17%	5%	0.9%	75%
AA 3273 American Flight history →	DFW 09:27	LAX 10:44	17%	4%	0.9%	69%
AA 1996 American Flight history →	DFW 08:35	LAX 09:49	17%	4%	1.0%	83%
AA 2659 American Flight history →	DFW 14:29	SNA 15:57	18%	5%	0.8%	80%
AA 1208 American Flight history →	DFW 10:17	BUR 11:49	18%	6%	1.2%	75%
F9 3325 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:30	SNA 10:00	19%	5%	0.9%	68%
AA 3223 American Flight history →	DFW 16:18	SNA 17:46	19%	5%	0.8%	80%
WN 4828 Southwest	DAL 13:28	LAX 14:39	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1275 American	DFW 13:19	LAX 14:39	20%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 806 American Flight history →	DFW 19:15	SNA 20:22	22%	5%	1.1%	68%
AA 1669 American Flight history →	DFW 15:22	LAX 16:49	22%	8%	0.9%	52%
F9 4689 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:30	ONT 19:07	22%	9%	0.8%	79%
WN 198 Southwest	DAL 18:51	LGB 20:02	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 1504 American Flight history →	DFW 16:29	LAX 17:46	25%	9%	0.9%	61%
AA 2125 American	DFW 17:27	LAX 18:54	25%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 3006 American Flight history →	DFW 17:58	ONT 19:16	27%	8%	0.8%	65%
AA 2043 American	DFW 18:53	LAX 20:16	28%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 2597 American Flight history →	DFW 18:54	BUR 20:26	30%	10%	1.2%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON