Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 39 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2215 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 2215 DFW 05:54 → EWR 10:28 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2861 DFW 14:37 → EWR 19:12 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2215 United	DFW 05:54	EWR 10:28	6%	3%	1.0%	no record
DL 454 Delta Flight history →	DFW 08:15	JFK 12:59	7%	2%	0.9%	90%
UA 1847 United Flight history →	DFW 06:00	EWR 10:29	7%	2%	1.0%	89%
WN 4827 Southwest	DAL 06:21	LGA 11:01	8%	2%	1.2%	no record
AA 2925 American Flight history →	DFW 05:56	LGA 10:37	10%	3%	1.8%	72%
DL 551 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:00	LGA 11:29	11%	3%	1.2%	86%
AA 1796 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	EWR 11:57	13%	4%	1.1%	81%
WN 1279 Southwest	DAL 08:26	LGA 12:59	13%	3%	1.0%	no record
F9 2472 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:50	EWR 12:31	15%	6%	1.1%	83%
UA 1268 United	DFW 09:21	EWR 13:53	16%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 873 Delta Flight history →	DFW 10:35	LGA 15:10	17%	6%	1.2%	76%
AA 1766 American Flight history →	DFW 09:50	JFK 14:34	18%	5%	0.7%	75%
AA 1609 American Flight history →	DFW 07:40	LGA 12:13	18%	4%	1.7%	83%
AA 1056 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	LGA 13:00	18%	5%	1.5%	75%
AA 1058 American	DFW 13:20	JFK 18:10	24%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2178 American	DFW 09:31	LGA 14:11	25%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 2922 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	LGA 15:25	25%	8%	1.4%	69%
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:59	LGA 23:33	25%	8%	1.6%	59%
AA 1248 American Flight history →	DFW 18:32	JFK 23:10	26%	8%	0.8%	64%
AA 578 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	JFK 21:00	26%	10%	0.7%	57%
DL 856 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:15	LGA 17:53	27%	9%	1.2%	64%
UA 1574 United Flight history →	DFW 13:00	EWR 17:37	27%	12%	0.8%	78%
AA 1375 American	DFW 19:02	LGA 23:51	27%	9%	1.6%	no record
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:10	LGA 20:51	27%	11%	1.2%	69%
AA 813 American Flight history →	DFW 11:49	EWR 16:25	28%	12%	1.1%	69%
AA 2327 American Flight history →	DFW 11:43	LGA 16:31	29%	9%	1.4%	38%
AA 672 American Flight history →	DFW 12:33	LGA 17:21	29%	10%	1.4%	59%
WN 2777 Southwest	DAL 12:36	LGA 17:08	30%	10%	1.1%	no record
AA 1806 American	DFW 13:51	LGA 18:30	34%	10%	1.6%	no record
AA 618 American Flight history →	DFW 18:15	EWR 22:51	34%	13%	1.4%	56%
UA 2461 United	DFW 17:01	EWR 21:32	34%	14%	0.8%	no record
AA 2570 American Flight history →	DFW 18:04	LGA 22:49	35%	12%	1.6%	64%
F9 3424 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:15	LGA 20:06	35%	16%	2.1%	61%
WN 4749 Southwest	DAL 15:56	LGA 20:36	36%	15%	1.1%	no record
WN 40 Southwest	DAL 17:51	LGA 22:32	36%	15%	1.0%	no record
AA 2434 American	DFW 14:52	LGA 19:31	36%	11%	1.5%	no record
AA 2513 American Flight history →	DFW 16:49	LGA 21:29	37%	14%	1.7%	56%
AA 610 American Flight history →	DFW 14:48	LGA 19:22	38%	14%	1.6%	54%
AA 2861 American Flight history →	DFW 14:37	EWR 19:12	41%	15%	1.1%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON