Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 30 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1332 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 1332 DAL 06:01 → BWI 10:11 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4604 DAL 17:31 → DCA 21:38 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1332 Southwest	DAL 06:01	BWI 10:11	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1333 Southwest	DAL 08:23	BWI 12:33	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3617 Southwest	DAL 07:22	DCA 11:28	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2639 United Flight history →	DFW 07:20	IAD 11:26	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 1618 American Flight history →	DFW 05:02	DCA 09:03	8%	2%	0.9%	88%
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DFW 07:02	DCA 10:59	8%	3%	1.0%	86%
AA 2314 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	BWI 11:32	11%	4%	0.8%	80%
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DFW 08:40	DCA 12:42	12%	4%	0.8%	85%
WN 1965 Southwest	DAL 11:17	BWI 15:29	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2399 American	DFW 09:33	DCA 13:43	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 524 American Flight history →	DFW 10:26	IAD 14:40	14%	4%	0.7%	90%
F9 1476 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:22	BWI 11:43	14%	4%	0.9%	73%
UA 358 United Flight history →	DFW 12:25	IAD 16:31	15%	5%	0.6%	86%
F9 3208 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:30	IAD 11:44	16%	5%	0.8%	84%
AA 2669 American	DFW 10:45	BWI 15:02	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DFW 11:54	DCA 15:59	17%	6%	0.8%	70%
WN 4418 Southwest	DAL 10:46	DCA 14:52	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1240 United Flight history →	DFW 17:15	IAD 21:24	19%	7%	0.6%	79%
AA 1863 American Flight history →	DFW 13:58	IAD 18:13	22%	7%	0.7%	70%
WN 1130 Southwest	DAL 15:46	BWI 19:56	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2520 American	DFW 14:46	DCA 18:57	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 2805 American Flight history →	DFW 14:32	BWI 18:50	24%	7%	0.7%	79%
WN 113 Southwest	DAL 13:31	DCA 17:34	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2752 American Flight history →	DFW 18:52	DCA 22:59	25%	9%	0.9%	62%
AA 2254 American	DFW 18:46	IAD 22:54	27%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 472 American Flight history →	DFW 17:15	DCA 21:31	27%	10%	0.8%	65%
AA 2251 American Flight history →	DFW 19:37	BWI 23:43	27%	9%	0.8%	62%
WN 1291 Southwest	DAL 17:26	BWI 21:36	29%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1347 Southwest	DAL 19:11	DCA 23:15	32%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 4604 Southwest	DAL 17:31	DCA 21:38	36%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON