Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5157 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 5157 DAY 07:09 → DFW 08:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 5115 DAY 18:23 → DFW 19:53 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5157 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 07:09	DFW 08:50	11%	4%	1.1%	87%
AA 5125 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 08:15	DFW 09:56	13%	5%	1.1%	84%
OH 5114 PSA	DAY 13:49	DFW 15:19	21%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 5115 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 18:23	DFW 19:53	27%	8%	1.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON