Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 3686 at 05:43 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3686 DAY 05:43 → ORD 06:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3951 DAY 19:13 → ORD 19:28 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3686 Envoy	DAY 05:43	ORD 06:01	8%	3%	2.3%	no record
MQ 3949 Envoy	DAY 12:28	ORD 12:57	21%	5%	1.6%	no record
OO 4806 SkyWest	DAY 11:35	ORD 11:54	21%	7%	2.4%	no record
MQ 3951 Envoy	DAY 19:13	ORD 19:28	25%	7%	2.0%	no record
UA 4415 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DAY 05:40	ORD 05:55	8%	0%	0.0%	92%
UA 4402 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DAY 07:15	ORD 07:55	17%	9%	2.2%	83%
UA 4453 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DAY 11:39	ORD 12:05	21%	12%	2.3%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON