tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 5229 at 06:03, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5229 American flown by PSA Flight history → DAY 06:03 PHL 07:57 9% 6% 2.2% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DAY 05:40 → ORD 05:55UA 4415 · flown by GoJet 1h 28m Chicago ORD 07:23 → PHL 10:30UA 2856 4h 50m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → DAY 06:00 → ATL 07:40DL 3140 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270 4h 57m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → DAY 15:56 → ATL 17:40DL 2763 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:33DL 1174 6h 37m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → DAY 06:31 → CLT 08:20AA 5234 · flown by PSA 1h 22m Charlotte CLT 09:42 → PHL 11:35AA 2565 5h 04m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → DAY 08:30 → CLT 10:19AA 5242 · flown by PSA 2h 43m Charlotte CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573 6h 20m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → DAY 11:23 → ATL 13:02DL 3108 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329 6h 49m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → DAY 07:15 → ORD 07:55UA 4402 · flown by GoJet 3h 38m Chicago ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182 7h 32m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → DAY 12:58 → CLT 14:30AA 5385 · flown by PSA 3h 44m Charlotte CLT 18:14 → PHL 20:15AA 423 7h 17m 99% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON