Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, B6 2494 at 15:25, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 2494 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 15:25	ACK 16:56	36%	15%	3.1%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nantucket on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DCA 06:00 → EWR 07:19UA 4167 · flown by GoJet	1h 30m Newark	EWR 08:49 → ACK 10:15UA 4497 · flown by GoJet	4h 15m	96%	85%
United Details →	DCA 08:30 → EWR 09:52UA 4430 · flown by GoJet	3h 38m Newark	EWR 13:30 → ACK 14:56UA 4491 · flown by GoJet	6h 26m	98%	81%
JetBlue Details →	DCA 06:21 → JFK 07:30B6 254	2h 15m New York	JFK 09:45 → ACK 11:12B6 2091	4h 51m	96%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON