Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 410 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 410 DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 1484 DCA 18:56 → ATL 20:55 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 410 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:00	ATL 07:41	5%	2%	0.7%	95%
WN 1482 Southwest	DCA 07:27	ATL 09:25	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 824 Delta	DCA 06:57	ATL 08:50	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 455 Delta Flight history →	DCA 09:00	ATL 10:50	10%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 832 Delta Flight history →	DCA 20:50	ATL 23:00	11%	5%	0.7%	76%
DL 926 Delta Flight history →	DCA 10:16	ATL 12:06	11%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 4733 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:26	ATL 13:33	11%	3%	0.7%	32%
YX 4682 Republic	DCA 20:40	ATL 22:51	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 1149 Southwest	DCA 12:41	ATL 14:40	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2003 Delta	DCA 14:00	ATL 15:54	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
YX 4576 Republic	DCA 13:56	ATL 16:01	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 343 Delta Flight history →	DCA 08:00	ATL 09:51	13%	3%	0.7%	87%
OH 5675 PSA	DCA 06:26	ATL 08:18	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3881 Envoy	DCA 08:24	ATL 10:19	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 380 Delta Flight history →	DCA 12:27	ATL 14:15	15%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 360 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:00	ATL 18:06	16%	5%	0.6%	73%
DL 1007 Delta Flight history →	DCA 19:36	ATL 21:30	18%	5%	0.7%	79%
YX 4735 Republic	DCA 17:57	ATL 20:02	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 850 Delta Flight history →	DCA 18:30	ATL 20:35	20%	5%	0.7%	68%
WN 1484 Southwest	DCA 18:56	ATL 20:55	21%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON