tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1770 at 17:23, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1770 Southwest DCA 17:23 AUS 19:42 34% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 7h 25m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → AUS 12:50DL 2062 7h 50m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 08:01 → STL 09:19WN 1519 3h 32m St Louis STL 12:51 → AUS 15:03WN 3173 8h 02m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 35m Detroit DTW 09:04 → AUS 10:59DL 1218 5h 59m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 15m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 6h 29m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:59 → MCO 09:20DL 1003 3h 15m Orlando MCO 12:35 → AUS 14:30DL 2259 8h 31m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 07:41 → ORD 08:53UA 441 2h 54m Chicago ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061 8h 00m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 7h 50m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:30 → EWR 18:03UA 4401 · flown by GoJet 1h 10m Newark EWR 19:13 → AUS 22:21UA 1032 6h 51m 64% 40%
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:55 → EWR 19:28UA 4180 · flown by GoJet 1h 12m Newark EWR 20:40 → AUS 23:30UA 1409 6h 35m 65% 39%
UnitedDetails → DCA 13:00 → EWR 14:22UA 4442 · flown by GoJet 48m Newark EWR 15:10 → AUS 18:11UA 2289 6h 11m 55% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON