Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5213 at 10:06 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5213 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:06	AVL 11:37	20%	5%	1.5%	79%
OH 5053 PSA	DCA 17:36	AVL 19:07	32%	10%	1.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 09:58 → AVL 11:07DL 3059	5h 07m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099	6h 40m	98%	84%
American Details →	DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521	1h 27m Charlotte	CLT 09:05 → AVL 10:19AA 6030 · flown by Piedmont	4h 11m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182	4h 12m	95%	83%
American Details →	DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 13:13 → AVL 14:19AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	5h 49m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 16:11 → AVL 17:20DL 3101	4h 53m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 19:37 → AVL 20:41DL 3071	4h 41m	91%	74%
American Details →	DCA 07:59 → DFW 10:31AA 1978	2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:36 → AVL 16:05AA 569	8h 06m	98%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DCA 17:55 → EWR 19:28UA 4180 · flown by GoJet	1h 31m Newark	EWR 20:59 → AVL 23:15UA 4405 · flown by GoJet	5h 20m	72%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON