Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5332 at 08:58 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5332 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:58	BHM 10:26	18%	7%	0.9%	92%
OH 5226 PSA	DCA 15:00	BHM 16:00	33%	11%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	6h 10m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	6h 24m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163	5h 54m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → BHM 17:55DL 1132	6h 28m	98%	86%
American Details →	DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521	1h 21m Charlotte	CLT 08:59 → BHM 09:23AA 5043 · flown by PSA	4h 15m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	4h 58m	94%	84%
United Details →	DCA 10:58 → IAH 13:19UA 2190	1h 06m Houston	IAH 14:25 → BHM 16:20UA 6120 · flown by Mesa	6h 22m	91%	82%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → BHM 09:33DL 3685 · flown by SkyWest	4h 33m	96%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON