Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1485 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 1485 DCA 06:06 → BNA 06:58 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2810 DCA 17:08 → BNA 17:59 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1485 Southwest	DCA 06:06	BNA 06:58	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
YX 4356 Republic	DCA 06:59	BNA 07:59	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 5708 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:08	BNA 11:08	11%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 5707 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:59	BNA 22:02	14%	5%	0.7%	79%
WN 608 Southwest	DCA 10:36	BNA 11:28	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5777 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:10	BNA 16:15	18%	4%	0.7%	76%
AA 5085 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:04	BNA 10:11	19%	5%	1.2%	64%
MQ 4276 Envoy	DCA 14:00	BNA 14:57	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 1486 Southwest	DCA 13:36	BNA 14:27	22%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4523 Southwest	DCA 19:18	BNA 20:10	28%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 1163 American Flight history →	DCA 17:46	BNA 18:58	30%	12%	1.1%	61%
WN 2810 Southwest	DCA 17:08	BNA 17:59	31%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON