Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4669 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–40%.

Safest bet that day YX 4669 DCA 05:59 → BOS 07:43 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2954 DCA 17:00 → BOS 18:41 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4669 Republic	DCA 05:59	BOS 07:43	4%	2%	1.2%	no record
DL 5710 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:00	BOS 07:45	4%	2%	1.1%	93%
DL 5698 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:59	BOS 08:41	6%	2%	1.3%	92%
AA 3240 American Flight history →	DCA 06:53	BOS 08:37	7%	4%	1.5%	82%
DL 5852 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:14	BOS 11:58	13%	3%	1.0%	85%
DL 5687 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:29	BOS 10:15	13%	3%	1.4%	88%
AA 1164 American	DCA 08:21	BOS 10:05	14%	6%	1.5%	no record
AA 1015 American Flight history →	DCA 10:41	BOS 12:25	15%	8%	1.1%	75%
DL 5693 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:47	BOS 13:27	15%	5%	0.9%	84%
AA 4337 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 09:41	BOS 11:25	16%	4%	1.1%	50%
B6 554 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 08:44	BOS 10:20	18%	6%	1.5%	88%
DL 5592 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 12:55	BOS 14:40	19%	8%	0.9%	82%
B6 2454 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 11:00	BOS 12:35	19%	11%	1.0%	82%
B6 754 JetBlue	DCA 12:20	BOS 14:00	24%	15%	1.0%	no record
AA 4668 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:01	BOS 20:44	24%	8%	1.1%	73%
YX 4665 Republic	DCA 13:14	BOS 15:09	28%	9%	0.9%	no record
DL 5600 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:15	BOS 17:02	29%	11%	0.9%	61%
DL 5689 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 18:30	BOS 20:29	29%	10%	1.2%	62%
AA 955 American	DCA 15:07	BOS 16:50	30%	15%	0.9%	no record
B6 1254 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 13:25	BOS 14:59	31%	19%	1.1%	68%
AA 3207 American Flight history →	DCA 17:00	BOS 18:47	35%	16%	0.9%	43%
DL 5682 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:01	BOS 18:44	35%	10%	1.0%	59%
B6 1354 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 14:25	BOS 16:00	36%	23%	1.0%	49%
B6 2754 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 19:20	BOS 21:00	36%	21%	1.2%	50%
B6 2954 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 17:00	BOS 18:41	40%	24%	1.2%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON