Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4647 at 10:01 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 4647 DCA 10:01 → BUF 11:41 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest OH 5237 DCA 15:51 → BUF 17:12 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4647 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:01	BUF 11:41	10%	3%	0.9%	62%
OH 5051 PSA	DCA 12:26	BUF 13:47	20%	7%	1.4%	no record
OH 5237 PSA	DCA 15:51	BUF 17:12	31%	11%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON