Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5107 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5107 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:30	CAE 10:09	18%	5%	1.6%	75%
AA 5095 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:44	CAE 18:17	29%	10%	2.0%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521	3h 33m Charlotte	CLT 11:11 → CAE 12:20AA 5994 · flown by Piedmont	6h 12m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → CAE 11:14DL 5091 · flown by Endeavor	5h 16m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 14:05 → CAE 15:06DL 3193	6h 06m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 12:00 → CAE 12:59DL 2944	4h 59m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 17:33 → CAE 18:41DL 2193	6h 14m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 20:07 → CAE 21:15DL 3008	5h 15m	95%	82%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → EWR 07:19UA 4167 · flown by GoJet	1h 11m Newark	EWR 08:30 → CAE 10:39UA 4191 · flown by GoJet	4h 39m	95%	79%
American Details →	DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518	2h 49m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → CAE 14:07AA 6047 · flown by Piedmont	5h 37m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DCA 15:30 → ORD 16:52UA 1325	58m Chicago	ORD 17:50 → CAE 20:54UA 5594 · flown by SkyWest	5h 24m	73%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON