tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Chattanooga on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:33 → CHA 12:22DL 1737 6h 22m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 13:13 → CHA 14:02DL 3141 5h 02m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 16:49 → CHA 17:46DL 3124 5h 19m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 2h 39m Chicago ORD 10:25 → CHA 13:16UA 4543 · flown by GoJet 6h 46m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 19:36 → CHA 20:33DL 1722 4h 33m 91% 80%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521 3h 47m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → CHA 12:54AA 6127 · flown by Piedmont 6h 46m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:59 → DFW 10:31AA 1978 1h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:24 → CHA 15:38AA 2037 7h 39m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 2h 09m Houston IAH 12:50 → CHA 16:03UA 5091 · flown by SkyWest 7h 43m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182 47m Charlotte CLT 20:24 → CHA 21:52AA 5787 · flown by Piedmont 4h 02m 71% 56%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454 55m Detroit DTW 20:10 → CHA 22:02DL 4894 · flown by Endeavor 4h 33m 70% 53%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:40 → LGA 18:59DL 5763 · flown by Republic 51m New York LGA 19:50 → CHA 22:22DL 5276 · flown by Endeavor 4h 42m 47% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON