Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, MQ 3345 at 11:57, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3345 Envoy	DCA 11:57	CID 13:23	11%	2%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cedar Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 20:56 → CID 22:03DL 2626	7h 03m	96%	84%
American Details →	DCA 09:59 → DFW 12:11AA 795	2h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:05 → CID 17:10AA 4318 · flown by Envoy	8h 11m	99%	84%
American Details →	DCA 13:44 → DFW 16:11AA 1177	2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:36 → CID 20:41AA 3798 · flown by Envoy	7h 57m	97%	81%
United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	54m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → CID 10:09UA 4611 · flown by GoJet	4h 39m	89%	72%
American Details →	DCA 15:15 → CLT 16:46AA 2040	1h 29m Charlotte	CLT 18:15 → CID 19:41AA 3127	5h 26m	90%	70%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	2h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 10:16 → CID 11:26DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	6h 26m	99%	69%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:59 → MSP 20:52DL 2963	48m Minneapolis	MSP 21:40 → CID 22:49DL 5290 · flown by Endeavor	4h 50m	79%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON