Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OH 5395 at 07:28 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–35%.

Safest bet that day OH 5395 DCA 07:28 → CLE 08:53 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5091 DCA 17:45 → CLE 19:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5395 PSA	DCA 07:28	CLE 08:53	15%	5%	1.9%	no record
MQ 3915 Envoy	DCA 14:02	CLE 15:26	20%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 5535 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 12:03	CLE 13:31	26%	7%	1.3%	76%
OH 5091 PSA	DCA 17:45	CLE 19:10	35%	12%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON