Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 580 at 04:53 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22%.

Safest bet that day AA 580 DCA 04:53 → CLT 06:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5527 DCA 13:16 → CLT 14:40 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 580 American	DCA 04:53	CLT 06:24	6%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 1521 American Flight history →	DCA 06:08	CLT 07:38	7%	2%	1.0%	79%
AA 1518 American Flight history →	DCA 08:30	CLT 10:13	13%	4%	1.0%	86%
AA 761 American	DCA 11:52	CLT 13:24	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 2040 American Flight history →	DCA 15:15	CLT 16:46	20%	5%	0.9%	79%
AA 2002 American	DCA 19:17	CLT 20:49	22%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 2182 American Flight history →	DCA 17:50	CLT 19:37	22%	9%	1.0%	71%
OH 5527 PSA	DCA 13:16	CLT 14:40	31%	8%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON