Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4627 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 4627 DCA 06:58 → CMH 08:32 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 4398 DCA 17:10 → CMH 18:44 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4627 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:58	CMH 08:32	4%	1%	0.7%	94%
AA 4700 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:16	CMH 11:50	9%	2%	0.6%	87%
WN 1249 Southwest	DCA 11:41	CMH 13:07	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 4777 Republic	DCA 13:52	CMH 15:26	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4398 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:10	CMH 18:44	18%	4%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON